Raise your hand if you been in this situation... You're in a conference room with senior leadership. Someone puts up a slide showing projected online undergraduate enrollment that looks something like a hockey stick curving upward by year five. Heads in the room nod along because the alternative (admitting that the numbers are aspirational at best) is too uncomfortable to say out loud.
This is why the story unfolding at Calbright College should give us all pause. Calbright was launched as California's all-online community college in 2019 as one of the most progressive initiatives in higher education designed specifically for adult learners. But despite $100 million in one-time startup funds and years of ongoing state support, enrollment hasn't reached a scale that justifies the cost structure. The cautionary tale for private universities that are banking on the adult learner market to grow their online enrollments is that Calbright's programs are tuition-free. Their programs are free to California residents and they still can't hit their enroll targets. And yet, private universities continue to draw up online growth plans that assume they can outperform what a state-backed institution offering tuition-free education cant' pull off.
The cost reality is where this should get uncomfortable for those senior leaders in that conference room following the marketing bluster like lost sheep. Calbright's model ran at roughly $50 million a year to serve around 7,000 students, or about $7,000 per enrolled student annually. The online undergraduate programs I'm familiar with at mid-tier private universities carry per-student delivery costs that are typically double that figure. Calbright's enrollment growth, while genuine, came only after years of underperformance and a significant redesign of programs based on what students said wasn't working. You don't get that kind of second chance at a tuition-dependent mid-tier private. When enrollment projections fall short and the tuition revenue doesn't materialize there's just the shortfall and a hard conversation with the board.
No comments:
Post a Comment