Slippery Growth Strategies

A lot of tuition-dependent private universities are betting on growth in their online programs, primarily undergraduate programs marketed to adult learners, to hedge against declining full-time residential enrollments. I've spoken with colleagues who struggle to keep a straight face when they describe growth projections of 250% in their online undergraduate programs by 2030. Of course, there's nothing humorous about it, but it's better to have a crazy goal than no goal at all, despite the data that should be giving us pause.

Back in May, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reported that first-time college enrollment among adult learners saw its first decline since 2021, down 15.5%. There's a lot of discussion about what's caused the drop and how to counter it. Regardless of what's driving the decline, the implications are increasingly serious for tuition-dependent private institutions with nascent online portfolios. These are the schools with the smallest share of adult learners and they're typically asking those learners to pay more than the bottom-feeder schools and mega online universities. That's a big problem if you're projecting 250% growth in four years.

I don't see this issue as price sensitivity, but I do understand the importance of price to adults learners. I see this more as a market saturation issue. There are now nearly 6,500 schools hawking course-completion credentials not tied to 120 credit-hour degrees. These are the faster, less expensive options increasingly recognized by employers. A small private university that's a few years into its online program hasn't built the brand recognition to compete with the rapidly expanding alternative credential ecosystem. I also think that that adult learners are increasingly delaying full degrees because they're genuinely uncertain what skills will matter in an uncertain and technology-mediated economy. This is the bigger problem for universities who've assumed a steady pipeline of upskilling-motivated adults ready to commit to a multi-year degree.

I'm not suggesting that all online adult learner programs are suspect. But universities that built their five-year plans on 250% online growth need to immediately stress-test those projections against scenarios where they maybe hit 50 or 60 percent of target. When the scenarios trigger financial emergency, quickly rethink whose being recruited. The universities that are actually growing adult enrollment right now aren't doing it through marketing alone. They've made sustained, multi-year investments in outreach, support services, and genuine flexibility. That takes time to build. A private university four or five years into an online UG program and hoping to 2.5x enrollment by 2030 doesn't have a long runway.