Where Leadership Is Failing Fastest

Great article in Inc. which accurately notes that nonprofit college closures are increasing since 2024 and are projected to reach 370 closures or mergers within a decade. We're familiar with the causes, which principally include evaporating traditional age enrollments and failing budget models. The most common (and weak) corrective action for mid-tier tuition dependent privates has been to increase their discounted tuition rates, which on average is 57 percent, while net tuition revenues shrink, and new federal caps on student loans squeeze the financial model that all of higher ed is built on.

As the article goes on to suggest, the universities most exposed right now aren't the elite brands nor the low-cost regional publics and community colleges. The most exposed and at risk universities are the vast middle tier privates with modest name recognition, sticker prices well north of $50,000, and no clear differentiator beyond "we have DI sports and a climbing wall in the gym." These institutions can't compete on prestige or price without gutting the margins they depend on. And trying to hold the brand line while also trying to match discount-driven competitors with online programs is a failing strategy.

My disappointment, again, is in the leadership of so many of these universities. These are the individuals who have either spent their careers inside the traditional academic hierarchy or they're the unctuous consultants who sold limp plans to the traditionalists who don't know any better. Faced with an unprecedented collapse of the higher ed market, we're sadly watching this leadership class default to unimaginative instincts to protect the brand, defend selectivity, and invoke the university's legacy. That's the best they have. That, and maybe a bowl full of consultant word vomit tossed on the table to explain why the doughy and ill-conceived online growth plans are failing fast.

The universities that survive this decade will be led by individuals who understand expertise, abandon the comfort of tradition, and resolve to jettison the idiotic rantings of the consultants-turned-employees and their soulless transactional robots.