No One Wants To Question The Bad Math

Put Gallup's latest confidence numbers next to Lumina's adult learner intent data and an equation emerges that needs to be questioned by every university leader who believes the uninformed babblings of that person with no background in professional, continuing & online education who told you they're going to triple the university's online enrollments by "unlocking the adult learner market."

Start the math with the data that indicate adult public confidence in higher ed has dropped to 38%, down from 42% last year, with cost and weak workforce prep among the top reasons. For the naive and visionless universities that bought into the consultant vomit promising ten thousand adult learner enrollments and hundreds of millions of dollars of gross revenues, the more important number is buried deeper in the data. Interest among adults in fully online learning is down to ~35%. Meanwhile, of the adults who actually intend to enroll somewhere in the next two years, only 48% want a four year institution at all. The other 52% want community college or a vocational/technical program. But more problematic to these universities and their limp online growth plans is that only 27% of adults surveyed have any near-term intent to enroll anywhere in the next two years. The result of the equation is a fraction that doesn't add up to the enrollment and revenue promises on the cheesy PPT slide.

The barriers for adult learners don't have anything to do with marketing. The cost of attendance and completion stops 81% of intending adults from doing anything. Time constraints stop 67%. Difficulty navigating enrollment hurdles dissuades others. None of this gets fixed by a bigger marketing budget and tired digital ads on social media. It gets fixed by transparent pricing, progressive credit for prior learning, stackable non-credit and credit credentials, workforce relevant training and preparation, and accessible onramps and offramps.

My recommendation won't surprise anyone. First, throw out the ridiculous and naive multiplier-based growth projections from the consultant. Then build your online enrollment growth with realistic intent rates for your region. Net out modality and credential level preferences against your market-sensitive programs (not your entire portfolio), and apply a yield rate that assumes real competition framed by an honest assessment of your brand. Finally, redirect the marketing budget your consultant convinced someone you need (and the consultant's six-figure salary) toward affordability guarantees and scholarships. For most tuition dependent mid-tier privates, that math will calc out with realistic and achievable yields, not comical triple digit aspirations. That's it. Simple.