Tennessee's Mic Drop

A new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper on the "Tennessee Promise" confirmed that free community college can work without bankrupting a state or the community colleges serving its residents. The program, which covers whatever tuition and fees remain after financial aid, boosted college enrollment by 5.4 percentage points and associate degree completion by 2.9 percentage points, while transfers to four-year institutions climbed 8-9%. Participants in their early 20s earned 6-8% more than peers who skipped college entirely. The cost per student is under $1,000 a year, because most participants were already Pell- or state-aid eligible. The NBER analysis suggests the program pays for itself after accounting for the wage premium a community college credential produces.

This is a model that will be repeated throughout the country (New York, Michigan, Ohio, and North Carolina have similar initiatives underway). And this is why tuition-dependent mid-tier private universities need to take serious notice. This is a model that is fully replicable on a smaller scale if an institution is willing to identify a specific, underserved population, strip out unnecessary cost and friction, and support it with market-sensitive degrees and alternative credentials. Not surprising, I will suggest that this is precisely what schools and colleges of professional & continuing education (PCE) are built to do.

PCE units have the pricing flexibility, the employer relationships, and the operational muscle memory that traditional academic units don't to successfully implement at the institutional level a bold and aggressive model like the Tennessee Promise. A last-dollar scholarship initiative, scaled down to a workforce partnership, an employer tuition-benefit population, or a bridge cohort of adult learners with some prior credit, isn't a stretch for PCE units. These are the units on private university campuses that have been running micro-versions of "remove the barrier, add support, capture the attainment" for years, almost always without adequate funding or executive leadership support.

I'll note again that this is the tragedy and missed opportunities playing out at so many mid-tier privates. While places like Tennessee are executing on targeted affordability and student outcomes, too many private universities are deprioritizing or dismantling the only units on their campuses equipped to replicate the success. These privates still have a narrow window to compete for these markets on smaller, targeted scales, but only through the PCE units they're currently busy dismantling.