Try To Keep Up

The number of 18-year old high school graduates has begun a long (and anticipated) decline. Private universities dependent on filling a freshman class that can pay the better part of the sticker price each fall are flailing to address revenue short-falls with tired plans that double-down the full-time residential experience. That's not sustainable when you're primarily drawing from a rapidly shrinking pool of traditional students. The better strategies for privates include targeting non-traditional students who have little interest in climbing walls in the fitness center and Division I sports but high demand for accessible and affordable market-sensitive credentials.

At nearly every US university, there is a division, school or colleges of professional & continuing education that sits closest to the non-traditional student market (the only market of learners that is growing while the traditional learner market contracts). These are the working adults and life-long learners looking for industry-relevant credentials that can be accessed and completed flexibly and affordably. Tuition dependent privates can spend budget they don't have on expensive recruitment and merit aid for a shrinking pool of eighteen-year-olds, or they can increase alternative enrollments and revenues through their PCE units.

Regional public universities are doing this exact thing at scale. They're unleashing their PCE units to launch degree completion pathways and short, stackable credentials tied to regional employer skills gaps, and generating significant alternative revenues in the process. Progressive tuition dependent privates should take heed and move quickly to invest in and prioritize their PCE units the same way. The privates that are actively de-prioritizing or deconstructing their PCE units are effectively ceding the alterative credential and adult learner market to regional publics and hoping that some how they'll sustain the enterprise with full-time residential students attending on a 52% discount.